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Economy

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

$4K volume-- 24hEnds Dec 31, 202613.5c yesLive
Chart

Probability history

1D CLOB
YES 13.5cNO 86.5c
Market

Outcome prices

YES / NO
Live

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S. bank with total assets exceeding $50 billion as of November 11, 2025 (see:https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/lbr/current/), is bailed out by the U.S. federal government by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

A bailout is defined as any of these actions in direct response to directly related to solvency, liquidity, or capital adequacy concerns.

-Establishing a Federal Reserve emergency lending facility

-Creating an FDIC-assisted resolution or bridge bank

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Outcome proposed

Pending
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Dispute window

Open until resolution
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Final outcome

Awaiting official result
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