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Geopolitics · Greenland

NATO dissolves before 2027?

$109K volume$9.05 24hEnds Dec 31, 20265.1c yesLive
Chart

Probability history

1D CLOB
YES 5.1cNO 94.9c
Market

Outcome prices

YES / NO
Live

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) dissolves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

NATO will be considered to be dissolved if any of the following conditions are met:

1) More than half of the NATO member states (as of market creation) withdraw from NATO.

2) An official treaty or agreement is adopted between all NATO member states to repeal or nullify the North Atlantic Treaty.

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Outcome proposed

Pending
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Dispute window

Open until resolution
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Final outcome

Awaiting official result
FI

Filthy-Status78d ago

if nato dissolves there will be a world war either way lol, free money on no
NO

NotProvided137d ago

The fact that this is even serious discussion. This would have been unthinkable just a few months ago. But I'm not betting yet. I'd say 30-50% chance
EL

Elementary-Rebellion136d ago

Overton window
NO

NotProvided136d ago

I know what the Overton window is, but can you elaborate on your comment?
NO

NoSteinNoGate135d ago

He is implying the overton window has shifted, thereby bringing previously unthinkable things into the discussion
NO

NotProvided135d ago

Exactly. That was my point

GollumGekko128d ago

if you think the chance is 30-50% u ought to buy some shares
BE

betkingglv140d ago

yes, of course.

Edmand143d ago

All NATO countries are pinning their hopes on the Democratic Party as the ruling party in the next election.
NO

NotProvided137d ago

According to some recent political debates I have listened to recently, not necessarily. They have to consider who could win in 2032... 2036... so on. Stability at this point is no longer guaranteed, which is what you need for a long-term partnership. This factor is no longer present
WH

White-Knight144d ago

Yes, this bet is undervalued. If US takes Greenland then this is going to happen for sure. US taking greenland and this bet should have similar odds, which they havent.

EyeOfMidas147d ago

Yes, unfortunately.