

Iran · Middle East
Iran leader end of 2026?
Winner probabilities
Outcome prices






























This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.
Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.
If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.
Outcome proposed
PendingDispute window
Open until resolutionFinal outcome
Awaiting official result
monstur-10d ago
This is a scam obviouslyFlimsy-Blinker18d ago
People overwhelmingly want Pahlavi and the current leaders keep dropping, isn’t it obvious?Yarick23d ago
[link removed] Us intelligence and CIA shows Mojtbna Khamenei is either dead or cannot function normally. No way he is leading his fractured country…Flafson18d ago
Many market resolve over a negative outcome not because they didn't happen but because there is no way to prove it happened in the given timeframe. I 100% agree with you but right now doesn't matter his state, IRGC has no interest in revealing the truth. Even if war resumes and he's dead and none knows about it and Israel kills more leaders, how do we know he's not leader anymore? Weird situation to be at.Yarick15d ago
That’s a very valid and legitimate point… truth doesn’t always win on Polymarketooops-24d ago
This is a classic Poly95 governance model: authority is measured through functional control of state mechanisms rather than constitutional legitimacyFutureSignalv29d ago
Starting to feel a bit overheatedGothABG37d ago
whats going on with odds right now?CompromisedGuy43d ago
I would add Mohsen RezaeiJordanius42d ago
Rezaei would be more palatable than VahidiCompromisedGuy42d ago
Yup that's why I say itYarick43d ago
[link removed] Khamenei is ousted by Irans revolutionary supreme guards, looks like they are not taking orders from him.