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Iran · Middle East

Iran leader end of 2026?

$13M volume$334K 24hEnds Dec 31, 202630 outcomesLive
Chart

Winner probabilities

All CLOB
Mojtaba Khamenei 72.1cReza Pahlavi 5.5cAbbas Araghchi 4cNo Head of State 3.3cMohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf 2.9cMohsen Araki 0.3c
Markets

Outcome prices

30 outcomes
Live

This market will resolve to the individual who de facto holds and exercises the powers of the head of state of the Islamic Republic of Iran on December 31, 2026 at 12:00 PM ET.

For the purposes of this market, “de facto holds” refers to the individual who exercises primary governing authority over the Iranian state at that time, including effective control over the armed forces, national institutions, and core executive decision-making, regardless of formal title, constitutional designation, or international recognition.

Formal appointment, recognition by the United Nations, or recognition by foreign governments is not required.

If more than one individual claims to be head of state, this market will resolve to the individual who demonstrably exercises primary governing control within Iran’s territory at the specified time.

OK

Outcome proposed

No
OK

Dispute window

No dispute
OK

Final outcome

No

monstur-10d ago

This is a scam obviously
FL

Flimsy-Blinker18d ago

People overwhelmingly want Pahlavi and the current leaders keep dropping, isn’t it obvious?
YA

Yarick23d ago

[link removed] Us intelligence and CIA shows Mojtbna Khamenei is either dead or cannot function normally. No way he is leading his fractured country…
FL

Flafson17d ago

Many market resolve over a negative outcome not because they didn't happen but because there is no way to prove it happened in the given timeframe. I 100% agree with you but right now doesn't matter his state, IRGC has no interest in revealing the truth. Even if war resumes and he's dead and none knows about it and Israel kills more leaders, how do we know he's not leader anymore? Weird situation to be at.
YA

Yarick15d ago

That’s a very valid and legitimate point… truth doesn’t always win on Polymarket

ooops-24d ago

This is a classic Poly95 governance model: authority is measured through functional control of state mechanisms rather than constitutional legitimacy

FutureSignalv29d ago

Starting to feel a bit overheated
GO

GothABG37d ago

whats going on with odds right now?
CO

CompromisedGuy43d ago

I would add Mohsen Rezaei
JO

Jordanius42d ago

Rezaei would be more palatable than Vahidi
CO

CompromisedGuy42d ago

Yup that's why I say it
YA

Yarick43d ago

[link removed] Khamenei is ousted by Irans revolutionary supreme guards, looks like they are not taking orders from him.