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Geopolitics · Strait of Hormuz

Trump announces US blockade of Hormuz lifted by...?

$29M volume$268K 24hEnds Jun 30, 20264 outcomesLive
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July 31 67.5cJune 30 45.5cJune 15 23.5cJune 7 6.5c
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On April 12, 2026, President Donald Trump announced that the United States will blockade the Strait of Hormuz. You can read more about that here: https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-us-iran-fail-reach-deal-peace-talks-day-negotiations-rcna315918.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Trump, the US government, or the US military publicly and officially announces the end of the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Qualifying statements must clearly and explicitly indicate that the United States has lifted, ended, or will lift or end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz on a specified date or use equivalently definitive language unambiguously signaling that such blockade has ceased or is set to cease on a specified date (e.g., statements unambiguously indicating that US naval activity in the relevant area has ceased will qualify).

Statements that merely describe actions inconsistent with the blockade (e.g., "Iran resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz") without explicitly indicating the blockade as lifted will not alone suffice.

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Awaiting official result

Jinx323h ago

Enriched uranium stockpiles is still a major point of disagreement.

nomoneynosleep1d ago

new on pm nd i been reading about poly64s strategies, coming in clutch for these US markets
WH

whiteshadow691d ago

one who seriously belive that the USA publicly and officially announces the end of the blockade this week is nuts ... this is free money guys

Fresh-Laundry1d ago

Again, a YES outcome proposal was submitted, and someone disputed it. Someone repeatedly thinks they are being denied here. I am afraid the resolution will be NO again.
AD

adasol1d ago

"US military says it attacked Iran’s Qeshm Island; Tehran targets Kuwait, Bahrain The US military says it conducted “self-defence” strikes on Iran’s Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz." Trust me, the Straight will open soon ;)))
RA

ragutwo2d ago

hopefully they agree to some opening for the World Cup
AD

adasol2d ago

Iran-US talks channel paused for several days - IRGC-outlet Message exchanges between Iran and the United States aimed at reaching an initial memorandum of understanding between Tehran and Washington have been suspended for at least several days, IRGC-affiliated Fars News Agency reported on Tuesday, citing an informed source.
AD

adasol2d ago

Iran hasn’t yet sent response to US peace proposal over ‘distrust’
TA

Tajdar3d ago

Scammed yet again
FA

Falcongamer3d ago

Hahahaha by the same logic all will resolve to "No" as May r Anything Trump announces will be a contingent statement.

Jsponge3d ago

Cope
RA

ragutwo3d ago

it's simple. If he announces that the blockade is lifted, YES wins. If he announces that he will soon lift the blockade as long as Iran does X and Y, and that sailors are soon going home and will happily go back to hug their President, then YES doesn't win. It's not that complicated.