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Geopolitics · Israel

Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?

$3M volume$3M 24hEnds Jun 7, 202699.9c yesLive
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Outcome prices

YES / NO
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June 30$135K Vol.Yes
May 31$37K Vol.No
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel officially announces another extension of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hezbollah announced on April 16, 2026, defined as a publicly announced commitment to halt direct military engagement with Hezbollah, by the specified date, 11:59 PM Israel Daylight Time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Both announcements of extensions of the April 16 ceasefire, as extended on April 23 and May 15, 2026, and of new agreements will qualify.

If a qualifying announcement is officially made before the resolution date, this market will resolve to “Yes,” regardless of whether the ceasefire extension ultimately takes effect.

A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.

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Outcome proposed

Yes
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Final outcome

Yes

totalost8012h ago

Lol what

NOTHINGSEVERFRICKINFAIRONHERE2h ago

CAR and 033033033, just come over to the No side. We have cookies.
WE

Weather-Report672h ago

everyone with a weather bot is up huge and im sitting here clicking buttons like an idiot. why am i even playing this
FI

Fine-Chino2h ago

This is so fucked up..

Moses14h ago

Polymarket is broken

saneperson6h ago

Whats the point of putting hezbollah in the rules if the market has nothing to do with hezbollah
0P

0ppt5h ago

That's one of the few things I just can't get my mind around.

DOG-UndressedVersion6h ago

"This is not the announcement of a brand-new ceasefire; this is asserting respect for a ceasefire that was actually agreed just last month in May" - aljazeera. This is not a new agreement or an extension it's a joint statement asserting a commitment to the ceasefire that was already in place.
TO

ToTheWindow7h ago

This isn't about whether Israel or Hezbollah are firing upon each other. This isn't about whether Israel has committed to stop firing. This market is fundamentally about whether the ceasefire was extended (see title of market). The April 16 ceasefire, extended for 45 days on May 15, was not extended by the new statement, which instead provides a framework for its implementation.
0P

0ppt7h ago

Read the rules, they are of greater importance than the title.
TO

ToTheWindow7h ago

A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end.

DOG-UndressedVersion7h ago

"A qualifying announcement requires clear public confirmation from the Israeli government that Israel has extended its commitment to the ceasefire beyond its current scheduled end"