Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China (People's Republic of China) announces it has established or otherwise de facto establishes an arial or naval blockade for the territory of Taiwan (Republic of China) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying blockade is:

- Prevents the normal ingress or egress of foreign commercial traffic to or from Taiwan Island’s main ports or airports by threat or use of force for ≥ 24 hours.

- Covers part or whole of the main island of Taiwan (Formosa).