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US defaults on debt by 2027?

$15K volume$16.61 24hEnds Dec 31, 20265.3c yesLive
Chart

Probability history

1D CLOB
YES 5.3cNO 94.8c
Market

Outcome prices

YES / NO
Live

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.

The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.

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Outcome proposed

Pending
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Dispute window

Open until resolution
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Final outcome

Awaiting official result
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