

Economy · Inflation
How high will inflation get in 2026?
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
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Capital-Endoderm18d ago
ICYMI: more AWFUL news. Import prices crushed (2x) the forecast, and bond yields are skyrocketing. Forget this bet, consider selling crypto/bitcoin and stocking up on toilet paper.Capital-Endoderm22d ago
The PPI read today was AWFUL. PPI anticipates CPI when inflation is driven by commodities (like oil) and supply chain issues.GypSea123d ago
Do you guys think if the energy prices stay high for 2-3 more months, can it hit 6%?MKIsabella22d ago
OECD says 4.2% average, which would suggest at least one month has to pop above 5%. [link removed]MKIsabella22d ago
OECD says 4.2% average, which means you would have some months in 5.5% range at least. This report was done in April 2026, when Hormuz was only closed 3-4 weeks. [link removed]GypSea122d ago
Well, then let the inflation begin:Dpooter22443d ago
kick rocks MKIsabellaNoPeeking48d ago
Guys! a hypothetical question: if Apr CPI were 3.5%, it would not be counted as above 3.5%?perfectnostalgia44d ago
"This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports." Rule set seems clear to me. 3.5 Exactly is not enough, needs to be 3.6.NoPeeking43d ago
thx manhyper-liquid-xyz58d ago
Oil futures just fell by 20 dollars due to Iran agreeing to the ceasefire, which would flatten out the inflation in the futuremousefire9653d ago
Dw. The ceasefire gonna work out just fine.