

Weather · climate
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Probability history
Outcome prices

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Outcome proposed
PendingDispute window
Open until resolutionFinal outcome
Awaiting official result
marco6272d ago
Hope NoPayna85d ago
Helene in 2024 proved that 'major' status is now a baseline riskRelaccsed153d ago
In the last 20 years, there have only been 5 category 4 hurricanes.. That’d put the odds for this year around 25% - YES. For the last 80 years, the long term average is actually only 22%!Bugblatter17d ago
Yes, plus el niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation and this year's is likely to be strongest since 1877. Yes is overvalued.Relaccsed153d ago
Seems pretty overvalued.moistcookie149d ago
why do negative pnls have the most to sayPortnoyAndHodge156d ago
So only 4, not 4 and above?NeoVanguard155d ago
According to rules, it is only 4. But don't be surprised if scammers here manipulate it to include 5 too.i2dt155d ago
They actually just added a cat 5 market, so this looks more confident this is only cat 4Relaccsed153d ago
Only cat 4.