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Weather · climate

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

$330K volume-- 24hEnds Dec 31, 202631c yesLive
Chart

Probability history

1D CLOB
YES 31cNO 69c
Market

Outcome prices

YES / NO
Live

For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.

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Outcome proposed

Pending
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Dispute window

Open until resolution
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Final outcome

Awaiting official result

marco6272d ago

Hope No

Payna85d ago

Helene in 2024 proved that 'major' status is now a baseline risk

Relaccsed153d ago

In the last 20 years, there have only been 5 category 4 hurricanes.. That’d put the odds for this year around 25% - YES. For the last 80 years, the long term average is actually only 22%!
BU

Bugblatter17d ago

Yes, plus el niño suppresses Atlantic hurricane formation and this year's is likely to be strongest since 1877. Yes is overvalued.

Relaccsed153d ago

Seems pretty overvalued.
MO

moistcookie149d ago

why do negative pnls have the most to say

PortnoyAndHodge156d ago

So only 4, not 4 and above?
NE

NeoVanguard155d ago

According to rules, it is only 4. But don't be surprised if scammers here manipulate it to include 5 too.
I2

i2dt155d ago

They actually just added a cat 5 market, so this looks more confident this is only cat 4

Relaccsed153d ago

Only cat 4.